…How do you know when evangelization is working?

Many of you may be aware of the work of Ryan Burge, who dissects statistics and religion at Graphs about Religion, a Substack newsletter. He is Professor of the Practice at the John C. Danforth Center on Religion and Politics at Washington University at St. Louis. I definitely recommend subscribing to his Substack.

Burge offers us a valuable service–the best public data we have, what it reveals, and what we need to ask because of the data. I admit I have an intense commitment to getting the best data we have when discussing–and especially assessing–religious affiliation and parish renewal. Why? Let me explain.

The chart above uses data culled yearly from the Pew Research National Opinion Reference Survey. It asks people how they religiously affiliate. Burge notes that the religious landscape of the 2020s is essentially unchanged.

This captured my attention because–well, a lot of people have been saying otherwise. Gen Z is coming back! The Eucharistic Revival changed everything! Churches are getting the swing of evangelization now! Liturgies are becoming more reverent and packed! OCIA numbers are higher than ever in many dioceses. “How to become Catholic” trending on Google after Pope Francis’ death! Against all odds, Catholics schools continue teach the young people virtue, values, and faith!

People, we clocked DOWN for affiliation last year. Even if the percentage drop was within the range of debate: we definitely didn’t go up.

I do not want to suggest that the italicized items above aren’t true, at least in part. I DO think Gen Z has a deep openness to faith their parents and grandparents did not. I do think reverent liturgy can anchor people to worship. I do think in some areas of the USA, the Eucharistic Revival was a deep discipleship planting that will continue to grow and bear fruit. And the OCIA numbers trending up–and sometimes way up–is genuinely exciting. Yet…we’re flatlining in affiliation.

I want to explore some reasons why this is the case, and why data needs interpretation.

1. Deaths and the generational march of time. This is important to remember so we do not lose hope: even the most full blown revival possible of Gen Z (young people, in their teens and early 20s) will not lift the overall Catholic affiliation numbers for some time. This is because our largest numbers of affiliated Catholics are in the Baby Boom generation–one of the largest generations that exists. 80% of those in the Baby Boom and older identify as Christian in the USA.* And they are passing on to eternity–they are not disaffiliating, but they are “leaving.” As the Boomers pass away, we have smaller generations that are much more disaffiliated. 63% of those born in the ’70s identify as Christian. 53% of those born in the ’80s. 46% of those born in the ’90s.

There is no way that a welcome upsurge in Christian identity in any younger generation is going to make up those numbers. The loss of the Catholic-identifying Boomers will be felt for generations. There can be evangelizaton and discipleship improvement without it being seen in these large-scale affiliation numbers.

(I would argue–this also makes a case for evangelizing not just our youth, but our Millennials and Gen Xers. They deserve to hear the gospel: that is always the main reason. But the impact that a loss of multiple middle-aged generations will have on the Church will be–and already is–brutal in terms of parenting, teaching, ministry, and finances.)

2. We jump from a single experience of the positive to a universal assumption. This is a simple, human reaction that is based in our hopes, dreams, and prayers. But the reality is: just because you have local good news on one front–or you see it online!–does not mean the momentum has swung. That requires a pattern of good news, over time.

The appropriate response to a good news moment (say, you go to a parish with reverent liturgy and you see it is packed with young people)–well, thank God! But there is a lot you don’t know. Maybe the parish has reverent liturgy, but the young families are coming because it’s the best school in town. Maybe the parish has reverent liturgy, but there was a tragedy in the town that drove young people to their knees. Maybe the parish has reverent liturgy, but people are coming because they were deliberately invited! Maybe…it’s not the liturgy.

Don’t get me wrong, reverent liturgy is worth offering for it’s own merits. But we can be thankful and inspired by good news experiences and moments without jumping to conclusions about the larger Church or even the moment itself!

3. We need to see if we’re suffering “churn.” One reason disaffiliation has been on my mind is that many are saying they are hearing things are better regarding affiliation–more OCIA numbers, more Gen Z interest–but they aren’t seeing it. In fact, their experience is more that people are leaving and swearing they are never coming back. What’s going on?

We need some data that discovers whether we are suffering churn–people coming in, but offset by people leaving. I have a sinking feeling in my gut this may be the case–but no data, so the jury is out. We may be gaining young people who are more conservative in their outlook (and yes, I mean politically in this case). A lot of the language used points to that. But we may be actively losing young people who are more liberal in their political outlook–because there is no place for them in their Catholic-identifying peer group.

(That question will be addressed next week, in an article on whether political parties determine affiliation more than “the secular age.”)

How do we know when evangelization is working?

Here is the hard lesson: you may not know immediately. People can be growing in their discipleship in fruitful ways, but not bearing fruit just yet. Or what you hoped would be an initiative that would bring in many to come and see this year is clearly going to take at least another year or two.

But don’t lose heart. If you keep getting told there is good news, and you don’t personally see it in your experience, don’t lose heart. And if you see data that seems discouraging, and even counters your experience of positive evangelization movement, don’t lose heart. It takes time to move these numbers. Focus on the person in front of you and how to present Christ to him or her. Focus on the next person you will invite to come and see.

The work is the Lord’s, as St. John Baptiste de la Salle used to say. That is the case when we see evidence of evangelization success or not. If we keep investing in his work, we will be fulfilling the call–and at some point, see the fulfillment of the Lord’s promises. But don’t say the battle is won–or lost–just yet. Look for good data, look for local experience, ask questions of people who think like you and don’t think like you, and challenge yourself as to how others can best hear the good news of Jesus Christ.

*****

*See https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2025/02/26/decline-of-christianity-in-the-us-has-slowed-may-have-leveled-off/ for the affiliation data from early 2025.